Released on = May 12, 2006, 3:44 am

Press Release Author = Patricia Ovemarrie

Industry = Media

Press Release Summary = Speculations are rife, particularly in the vernacular print
media, about a \'foreign\' design to effect a \'civilian coup d\'etat\' in Bangladesh by
diplomatic maneuvers surrounding the next general election.

Press Release Body = Speculations are rife, particularly in the vernacular print
media, about a \'foreign\' design to effect a \'civilian coup d\'etat\' in Bangladesh by
diplomatic maneuvers surrounding the next general election. A number of political
analysts, leaders of opinion, men of letters and newspaper columnists have expressed
their reservations, as well as their dark misgivings, about the diplomatic ping-pong
that has been going on, signaling keen Western interest in \'free and fair\' elections
in Bangladesh, scheduled in January 2007. Some of them have detected strong Indian
interest and persuasion, particularly behind diplomatic moves and noises made by
some European Union member-states.
The former US Ambassador in Bangladesh, Mr. Harry K. Thomas had bluntly talked about
the possibility of intervention by a \'third force\' (generally interpreted as
military rule directly or behind a civil facade) and derailment of the democratic
process. He urged the political parties to reach a minimum consensus about the rules
of the game for democratic governance and transition. The new US ambassador Patricia
Butenis has also made her position clear by saying that the coming general elections
are critical for Bangladesh, and need to be \'free and fair\'. She refused to be drawn
into the political controversy about reforms of the caretaker system and the
Election Commission that are demanded as a precondition by the mainstream opposition
for participation in the coming elections. She said they were internal matters of
Bangladesh to be resolved by the politicians themselves. Various reports and
statements by the US State Department have been consistently suggesting that
political violence between the two major political camps in Bangladesh has been
providing a climate of immunity to home-grown terrorists and extremists. Side by
side with governance issues, the US administration has been drawing attention to the
pressing need for a political equation between the ruling and opposition camps over
the conduct of the 2007 general elections to bury the question of the legitimacy of
the winning camp volubly raised after every election. US observers generally noted
that general elections in Bangladesh have been \'free and fair\' under the three
successive caretaker governments, while lending an ear to the aggrieved chorus for
reforms to fine-tune the system in a manner that will allow \'veto powers\' of
bi-partisan nature for the mainstream political parties over the interim caretaker
government.
Some European diplomats, on the other hand, have been taking a perceptibly different
approach, leaning more towards the opposition\'s demand for system-change to ensure
that the elections will be free from intimidation, minority fears, and partisan
manipulations of the \'subtle\' kind that might distort the results in the incumbent
government\'s favor. A European initiative of holding a meeting in Washington of the
Western \'development partners\' of Bangladesh on governance issues in Bangladesh,
without the presence of government representatives in that meeting, set alarm bells
ringing. The \'Tuesday Group\' of Western Ambassadors in Bangladesh thereafter
undertook an initiative to hold an international conference to teach the government
and non-government organizations, officials and activists in Bangladesh, lessons on
how best to conduct and monitor free and fair polls. The initiative was undertaken
without informing the government of Bangladesh, but has thereafter entered the phase
of diplomatic exchanges. Then there was the so-called European Troika\'s visit,
another visit by European Commissioners and frequent comments by some Ambassadors
and visiting dignitaries from European countries, all harping on serious European
concern about free and fair general elections due next year in Bangladesh. Either on
their own or in reply to leading questions by some reporters in Dhaka, European
diplomats have in effect been creating doubts about free and fair elections in the
country rather than saying anything encouraging or doing anything helpful. In so
many words, the European Union countries also appear to be assigning to themselves a
right, manifestly outside the stipulations of the UN charter, to judge \'the
legitimacy\' of the next elected government in Bangladesh by their own observers\'
presence or absence during the polls in January 2007.
In their latest move by way of a press conference on May 8, European Union envoys in
Bangladesh urged the political leadership to soften their rigid positions and reach
an understanding through talks to pave the way for free, fair and transparent
general elections acceptable both at home and abroad.
They also identified confrontational politics in Bangladesh as a serious problem,
and stressed the need for a sincere dialogue among political parties to remove
differences and reach a consensus on credible polls.
\'It is not a secret that confrontational politics here is a problem and the process
of dialogue is necessary. You need to give up certain positions if you want to reach
a consensus,\' said the EU\'s Head of Delegation, Ambassador Dr Stefan Frowein, on the
eve of Europe Day. \'Time is running out fast for a negotiated settlement of
pre-election wrangling and it is getting tighter. We are not interfering in politics
here but as friends we are only expressing our concern.\'
Well said and well received. Informed circles in Bangladesh do look upon the
European example as an inspiration in the painful but prospective transformation
that the world order is going through. The business community in Bangladesh is
particularly grateful for the openings and preferences offered by the European Union
as a whole as well as bilaterally by leading European countries to Bangladesh as a
least developed country. The goodwill of Europe is not in question, and Bangladesh
warmly felicitated the European Union on Europe Day.
But the envoy went on to say that the European Commission may not send observers to
the next parliamentary polls if a technical experts\' team, due to visit Bangladesh
next month, concludes that the prevailing atmosphere will not lead to free and fair
elections.
\'Even if the commission\'s headquarters in Brussels takes a political decision to
send observer missions, it will already be bad news for Bangladesh,\' Ambassador
Stefan Frowein later confided to a newsman. He explained that the delegation of
election experts will carry out a two-week exploratory mission in Bangladesh, some
time in June, to assess the pre-election atmosphere and also to verify the
\'advisability and usefulness\' of sending observers, numbering around 150, to the
scheduled January 2007 elections.
The wild imagination of some speculators and commentators has found in that message
a hint that perhaps the next general election in Bangladesh is not going to be held
at all, or if held, may lead to an impugned administration which will have to yield
to a \'regime change\', as in Thailand. More cool-headed analysts suggest that
Bangladesh is heading for derailment of the regular democratic process, a
forewarning of which is being given by the European envoys. They suggest that a
civilian coup may take place in two ways. First, if the caretaker government, with
or without agreed reforms, fails to obtain adequate participation or ensure
conducive conditions for free and fair polls, it could then prolong its tenure by
seeking the Supreme Court\'s constitutional advice for turning itself into a
\'national\' government of sorts, or it could declare an emergency which could be
ratified within six months by re-convening the dissolved Parliament. Another
alternative could be that the President, using the power of parliamentary oversight
vested in him during the caretaker period, might dismiss the caretaker government
for its failure to hold elections within the stipulated time, and form a \'national\'
government of his own choice to rule until a \'conducive climate\' to hold multi-party
adversarial polls is regained.
Some speculators privately suggest that the civil society group, which has blamed
the political leadership of both the ruling and opposition camps for failure to
nominate \'honest and able\' candidates and for indulging in horse-trading, is in
reality promoting a covert agenda of Western or perhaps Indo-European masterminds to
carry out a \'clinical operation\' to sanitize the political system in Bangladesh. We
believe and earnestly hope that such speculations are all groundless, as without
popular mandate such imposed prescriptions will never work in Bangladesh.


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Contact Details = Patricia Ovemarrie
323 Kennedy Ave, Interlachen, Florida 32148, USA