Construction in Bulgaria – Key Trends, Insights & Opportunities to 2022

– The Bulgarian construction industry’s growth prospects by market, project type and construction activity
– Critical insight into the impact of industry trends and issues, as well as an analysis of key risks and opportunities in the Bulgarian construction industry
– Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, focusing on development stages and participants, in addition to listings of major projects in the pipeline.

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Synopsis

In real terms, the Bulgarian construction industry recovered in 2017, after registering a lackluster performance in 2016. This recovery was driven by positive developments in regional economic conditions, a revival in both investor and consumer confidence and government investment in transport infrastructure. Consequently, the countrys construction industry registered a growth of 5.9% in 2017 in real terms.

Over the forecast period (2018-2022), the governments efforts to enhance transport infrastructure will support the growth of the industry. Financial assistance from the European Union (EU) for infrastructure development is expected to support industry growth. Under the European Structural and Investment Funds for 2014-2020, the EU is investing BGN19.3 billion (US$10.9 billion) until 2020 to develop the transport, industrial, energy and healthcare sectors. Moreover, an increase in the number of new building permits issued is also expected to support new construction activity over the forecast period.

The industry’s output value in real terms is expected to rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.29% over the forecast period, compared to -0.17% during the review period.

Key Highlights

Timetric expects the infrastructure construction market to retain its leading position over the forecast period, with a share of 33.9% of the industrys total value in 2022. In December 2017, the Sofia Municipality announced a plan to invest BGN103.0 million (US$59.4 million) in transport infrastructure in 2018. Of the total planned investment, BGN37.0 million (US$21.3 million) will be spent on the tramway track.

According to the Ministry of Transport, Information Technology and Communications, in order to develop the countrys transport infrastructure, BGN4.4 billion (US$2.5 billion) will be invested under the Operational Program for Transport and Transport Infrastructure and BGN406.0 million (US$234.1 million) under the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF) by 2020.

Timetric expects the residential construction market output to record a forecast-period CAGR of 9.41% in nominal terms, supported by improving economic conditions, the low unemployment rate and rising consumer confidence. Moreover, an increase in the number of new building permits issued is also expected to support new construction activity over the forecast period. According to the NSI, the total number of new building permits issued for residential construction in the country increased by 23.2%, going from 4,514 in 2016 to 5,562 in 2017.

In the 2018 budget, the government increased its expenditure on the education sector by 12.8%, going from BGN3.4 billion (US$1.9 billion) in 2017 to BGN3.8 billion (US$2.2 billion) in 2018. Furthermore, the governments 2018 budget spending on healthcare increased by 10.3%, going from BGN4.2 billion (US$2.4 billion) in 2017 to BGN4.7 billion (US$2.7 billion) in 2018. This will support construction activity in the institutional construction market over the forecast period.

The total construction project pipeline in Bulgaria, as tracked by the Construction Intelligence Center (CIC) and including all mega projects with a value above US$25 million, stands at BGN58.5 billion (US$33.7 billion). The pipeline, which includes all projects from pre-planning to execution, is well balanced, with 49.3% of the pipeline value being in projects in the pre-planning and planning stages as of May 2018.

Scope

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry in Bulgaria. It provides –
– Historical (2013-2017) and forecast (2018-2022) valuations of the construction industry in Bulgaria, featuring details of key growth drivers.
– Segmentation by sector (commercial, industrial, infrastructure, energy and utilities, institutional and residential) and by sub-sector
– Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, including breakdowns by development stage across all sectors, and projected spending on projects in the existing pipeline.
– Listings of major projects, in addition to details of leading contractors and consultants.

Reasons to buy

– Identify and evaluate market opportunities using Timetric’s standardized valuation and forecasting methodologies.
– Assess market growth potential at a micro-level with over 600 time-series data forecasts.
– Understand the latest industry and market trends.
– Formulate and validate strategy using Timetric’s critical and actionable insight.
– Assess business risks, including cost, regulatory and competitive pressures.
– Evaluate competitive risk and success factors.